WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s political team was full of bravado Wednesday after its winning streak in recent Republican primaries in Kentucky, Louisiana and Indiana, contests that put on display the president’s lasting hold over his Make America Great Again base.

“Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power,” White House communications director Steven Cheung crowed Tuesday after GOP Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss.

Campaign strategist Chris Lacivita followed that up with a fake photo of defeated Republicans the president had campaigned against labeled the “Former Caucus,” showing them in the kitchen baking cupcakes.

Outside the MAGA bubble, however, Republicans are increasingly on the defensive. Gasoline prices keep inching higher, bleeding into the broader economy, as the stalemate over Iran drags on. Long-term borrowing costs are on a tear, prompting fears the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates again this year — and may have to raise them.

There’s also a concern that some of Trump’s endorsements — particularly his decision Tuesday to back controversial Texas State Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff next week — could make it more difficult for Republicans to keep a stranglehold on power in Washington.

“How does that help the president’s agenda if we lose a state like Texas?” moderate Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski told reporters Tuesday.

On Capitol Hill, GOP senators are pushing back on providing federal funding for a new White House ballroom after the president initially said the renovations would be privately funded. There are also increasing signs of frustration from lawmakers over the war in Iran.

In short, the broader coalition that carried Trump to a second term is squirming even as his grip over the base remains tight.

“Trump is unquestionably winning the battle for the soul of MAGA. But MAGA alone isn’t enough to win the midterms,” according to a new analysis this week from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

A new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday outlined the prognosis. It showed just 33% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy — the lowest level in his two terms — while 64% disapprove. Most critically for GOP election prospects, 70% of independent voters said they disapprove of the president’s economic stewardship.

With the president most recently touting his summit in China, talks with Iran and renovations at the White House, 68% of voters said they don’t think he’s focused enough on the problems most Americans are facing, according to the survey of 1,106 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Other recent polls show that the same group of voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2024, including health conscious moms, young men, some Black men and Hispanics, have since moved away from the Republican Party. That doesn’t mean they are embracing Democrats, but it gives the party a chance to reclaim dissatisfied voters who can help it retake the House and, possibly, the Senate.

“There’s a generational divide in the Republican Party,” Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna told Bloomberg News on Wednesday. “It creates an opportunity for the Democratic Party to appeal to these young men who we’ve lost, and to say, come back to our fold.”

Democrats are counting on relentless messaging on affordability to help them win. Historically, the party in power loses congressional seats in a midterm election, something Trump has repeatedly alluded to with reporters and his supporters. Democratic candidates overperformed in two key gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey last fall by speaking to voters’ concerns about rising energy costs, data centers, housing and the state of public education.

“The things I think people should be campaigning on broadly are, ‘I’m going to take on every challenge that can help to lower costs for housing, healthcare and energy,’” Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger said in an interview with Bloomberg News this week.

Beyond recent primary wins in deep red states, there have been some clear bright spots for the president. A redistricting effort in Virginia that was rejected by the state’s Supreme Court gave Republicans some breathing room in a state-by-state battle that had ended in a stalemate. A handful of mostly Republican states are still reviewing their congressional maps and may draw more favorable districts ahead of the midterms.

With Democrats still favored to retake the House in November, Trump and his Republicans allies bet they can reverse history by attempting to make the election a choice between the GOP and a Democratic Party they argue has gone too far to the left.

“What we’re going to do for the next five months is take to the American people a clear contrast where they have the Democrats who are woke, weak and way too liberal — and stand for a variety of things that are just way outside of the mainstream of American values and American interests,” White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, one of the architect’s of Trump’s midterm strategy, said on Fox News.

Trump already sees himself on the path to victory. After a wave of primary races across five states on Tuesday he posted an election update on social media. It said, simply, “37 wins - 0 Losses.”

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(With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Jamie Tarabay and Erik Wasson.)

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